The percentage of total properties for sale in Loudoun County that are foreclosures/bank-owned or short-sales is holding steady around 25 percent. We've been seeing the percentage stay around 25 for most of this year.
Though we'd all like to see that percentage go down, it's definitely good news that it's not increasing. The fact that it's not increasing is another sign that the worse is behind us.
The rate at which new foreclosure/bank-owned and short-sale listings are entering the market in Loudoun County remains steady. Here are the numbers:
The trend so far this year seems to be about 10 or so new foreclosure/bank-owned and short-sale listings on the market each day. I'll keep you posted on how April ends up and whether this trends continues or changes.
-Danilo
The Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that they will posting interactive maps to illustrate subprime loan conditions across the U.S. The maps will display regional variation in the condition of securitized, owner-occupied subprime and alt-A mortgage loans.
You can search the map first by state and then narrow it down further by most counties and zip codes. The information on the maps includes:
The maps are supposed to be updated monthly, which is good. But the data lags behind several months. While looking at the map of Loudoun County today, I noticed that the data is from December 2007.
The maps are color coded which makes for great visual interpretation of the numbers. There are hard numbers available, but only for the overall state, not by county or zip code.
Overall, the maps are decent especially considering that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York created and is maintaining them. In addition to showing the subprime loan conditions across the U.S., the maps also help show how regional and local real estate really is.
(via Wall Street Journal)
-Danilo
Here's the latest data regarding foreclosure filings in Loudoun County as well as the rest of the state and nationally (via VAR's Commonwealth Online):
Home foreclosures dropped in the majority of the Washington, D.C. area and across the country, from January to February.
The one-month decrease comes at the start of the spring season, when real estate activity tends to pick up.
The number of properties with foreclosure filings fell 32.5 percent in the District of Columbia in February, with 340 foreclosure filings on properties, down from 504 the month before, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, a Web-based foreclosure listing company, which releases monthly foreclosure data.
In Northern Virginia, filings slid 18.7 percent, with only one county, Loudoun, seeing a slight increase of 1.3 percent, from 388 properties with foreclosure filings to 393 properties. Prince William County, which has been hit hard by the mortgage crisis, saw a decrease in filings of 23.7 percent, from 1,504 properties to 1,147 properties.
Fairfax County's number of foreclosures dipped 19.2 percent, from 1,330 properties to 1,074 properties, and Arlington County dropped 12.8 percent from 94 properties with foreclosure filings to 82 properties.
Overall, in the state of Virginia, foreclosures dropped 18.7 percent over the past month as well, from 5,152 properties with filings to 4,187 properties.
Across the entire country, the number of properties with foreclosures dipped 4.0 percent from Janury to February.
The rate at which new foreclosure/REO and short-sale properties are coming on the market in Loudoun County remains steady.
As you can see, the rate at which new foreclosure/REO and short-sale properties come on the market has remained steady so far this year. Until we see the number per day go down, property values will have a tough time going anywhere but sideways.
In addition to this type of inventory, another thing to keep a close eye on is the overall inventory in Loudoun County (click here for the post on that).
Just in case you haven't read or seen any news within the past 24 hours... Foreclosures in America have hit an all-time high. Here are links to some of the stories:
From The Washington Post: Home Foreclosures Hit Record High
"The spike was driven by declining home prices..."
From CNNMoney: Foreclosures hit all-time high
"Declining home prices are clearly the driving factor behind foreclosures, but the reasons and magnitude of the declines differ from state to state," said Doug Duncan, MBA's Chief Economist said in a prepared statement."
From AP: Home Foreclosures Hit Record High
"Clearly it's the worst it's been," chief association economist Doug Duncan said in an interview with The Associated Press. ... "We expect some increases in the next couple of quarters,"
From Bloomberg: U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Rise as Owners "Give Up"
"U.S. mortgage foreclosures rose to an all-time high at the end of 2007 as borrowers with adjustable-rate loans walked away from properties before their payments rose, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today.
"We're seeing people give up even before they get to the reset because they couldn't afford the home in the first place,'' said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based trade group."
From InmanNews: U.S. foreclosure starts hit new records
"Our general outlook is as long as house prices are declining, we expect to see some continued increase in delinquencies and foreclosures," Duncan said. With the continued seizure of credit markets and tightened underwriting standards, "we don't expect to see the peak (in foreclosures) until mid- to late-2008."
All of the articles/quotes hit on a few key points:
Despite all of this negative news, there is some good news for us in Loudoun County and the DC metro area. In the Washington region, foreclosure rates were below the national level: In the District, 1 percent of loans were in foreclosure; in Virginia, 1.01 percent; and in Maryland, 1.22 percent.
Here is a map showing median prices of REOs (foreclosed/bank owned properties) versus median list prices throughout the US (click to enlarge). Though it's not completely indicative of the ratio in Loudoun County, it will give you a general idea of the variance in the Mid-Atlantic region and throughout the country. (Please note that these are the median list prices not the median sales prices)
As a region, the Mid-Atlantic area has one of the closest ratios of median REO prices to median list prices. Notice the huge difference in the Midwest (there is one part of Cleveland, Ohio where 1 in 10 homes is a foreclosure).
Source: Trulia
The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors prepared a report entitled "Subprime Lending - Loudoun County Impacts Report" for their meeting on February 20, 2008. The report is on the impact of subprime lending and foreclosures on Loudoun County and covers such items as:
The report also consists of maps showing "low risk" and "high risk" areas within the county based on "Subprime Purchase Incidence" as well as "Foreclosures as Percent of Total Home Sales, January to June 2007 Loudoun County".
Unfortunately, the report does not include second half 2007 statistics in detail. The second half of 2007 saw a big increase in foreclosures both in number and as a percentage of total home sales. Though the report shows the beginning of the trend, it does not fully show nor illustrate the impact of subprime lending and foreclosures in Loudoun County.
For example, the report states:
"Foreclosures in the first half of 2007 represented 10% of Loudoun County sales but account for 25% of sales in the most affected area."
If they were to look at second half 2007 statistics in detail, they would see that those percentages are much higher than first half 2007 percentages, especially when looking at November's and December's figures.
The report does a good job analyzing the impact of subprime lending and foreclosures on Loudoun County. Just hope that they don't underestimate the true impact of subprime lending and foreclosures on Loudoun County and apply that to other decisions moving forward.
For the full report, click here and look for "Item #6 Subprime Lending and Attachments" (pdf).
According to RealtyTrac, U.S. foreclosure filings rose 79 percent in 2007 compared to 2006 with 1 percent of all households entering a stage of foreclosure.
The household numbers are based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 2005 estimates of total housing units, and RealtyTrac tracks filings for all phases of foreclosure, including notice of default and lis pendens, notice of trustee sale and notice of foreclosure sale, and real estate-owned (REO) properties that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank.
Here is a snapshot of foreclosure/bank owned and short-sale properties in Loudoun County, Virginia:
From MRIS data.
Recent Comments