2nd Quarter Real Estate Statistics for Loudoun County

The second quarter of 2008 is over and it was a very interesting quarter.  Several trends emerged that were unexpected and others that were expected have not materialized.  What we are seeing is several trends converging and opportunities will present themselves in the next several months.

FORECLOSURES

The doom and gloom stories about how foreclosures were going to inundate the market this year have not happened.  In some areas there have been more foreclosures than other areas but the trend was already established in the last half of 2007 .  The total number of foreclosures has not increased at all in the last three months.  What has increased is the number of buyers of foreclosures and the percentage of foreclosure sales to the total sales.  Prices have come down enough to get value buyers off the fence and make purchases.

PERFECT STORM

By my calculations and observations, a perfect storm is brewing for home buyers.  The inventory levels have continued to go down in the county throughout the quarter.  The net loss of 327 listings to the active inventory compares to a net gain last year of 524.  With inventory levels now at 2250 or so, this is a huge turnaround for Loudoun County.

The second part of the storm is the decrease in prices.  The average list price of a house sold in the second quarter of 2008 was $390,475.  This is a decrease of 22% from the average list price of houses sold in the second quarter of 2007.  And compared to the first quarter of 2008 prices were down 4% but sales were up 60%. 

This scenario of decreasing inventory and decreasing prices will only last so long.  Eventually prices will go up.  I predict that people will look back at the second half of 2008 and say it was one of the best times to buy real estate in Loudoun County.

Barring anything catastrophic happening to our county (and no, high gas prices is not catastrophic), the indicators point to this time as a market bottom in Loudoun County real estate.

Comments

[Colorado Springs]

We have seen some of the same things in our market in Colorado Springs. I can't wait to see the stats over the next year. It should be good...