Loudoun County Real Estate Statistics and News

Loudoun County Real Estate News - May 12th, 2011

There are two stories about Loudoun County that will have an effect on real estate in the future. 

The first story is regarding a longtime business in Loudoun County is expanding their presence here.  JK Moving and Storage is adding another 100,000 square feet of space here in Loudoun.  JK is the premier moving company in Loudoun and will continue to be a great company to have headquartered in Loudoun.  They have recently hired 30 new employees and will be adding another 100 in the near future.  It will host a job fair Saturday, from 8 a.m. to noon, at its headquarters, 44112 Mercure Circle.

On the bad side, there is the possibility that Loudoun County will opt out of funding the Metro Line that is being built right now.  There is a disagreement over whether or not to build the stop at Dulles Airport underground.  This will cost an extra $300 Million and with current cost over runs already at $1 Billion the likely cost to dig the hole will more likely be $500 Million with Loudoun paying 4.6% of this additional cost.

The implications of this are huge.  The Metro Airport Authority could build the stop at Dulles Airport and stop there.  This would eliminate the two additional stops in Loudoun County at Route 606 and Route 772.  And Loudoun would still be responsible for maintaining the Airport stop because it is in Loudoun.  Also, this would almost certainly have a negative effect on property values of those developments being build specifically near the future stops.

And another interesting fact in the story today is the future cost of tolls on the Dulles Toll Road.  Currently it costs 75 cents at the various stops along the toll road and $1.25 at the main booth in Tysons.  Once the metro goes the total costs for a one way trip will be $6.75 if they get federal help or $10.75 if they don't.  This is a huge increase in price and I can see this being a huge problem in the future.  

Loudoun County April Home Sales Down 14% Year over Year, Short Sale Deals Down 41%

There were 380 sales transactions completed in April 2011 compared to 440 in April of 2010.  This is a drop of 13.64%.  The housing market in Loudoun County is heading in the wrong direction as demand dries up in the face of stricter lending by zombie banks.

Foreclosure sales were down 14% as well even though the foreclosure turnstiles were stuck as banks were caught falsifying documents, lying on affadavits and overall being fraudulent in their attempts to steal homes from citizens.  This number should have been down much further if the government would just enforce laws of due process regarding foreclosures.  April 2011 had 50 foreclosure sales versus 58 last year.

Shorts sales continue to be a complete disaster with the government doing almost nothing at all to get the banks to approve short sales.  April 2011 showed 65 shorts sales closes versus 111 last year.  This is a 41% drop off in approved and completed short sales.  More evidence that banks are not fixing the problem and nobody is making them.  This is contrary to any rhetoric coming from the government or from anyone else for that matter.  The short sale problem has been a problem for years and banks have fought each and every attempt to fix this problem.  It will never go away as long as banks buy our congressmen at the state and federal levels.  

Here is a story at MSNBC regarding just how ineffective the government has been in fixing the housing problems.  They are being paid a lot of money to kill any bill that will hold the banks accountable and we as regular citizens are on our own to battle them.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42881365/ns/business-personal_finance

One Loudoun is going to Foreclosure

One Loudoun was going to be the greatest thing in Loudoun County since they built Dulles.  So much for that.  It is now just another big development that has failed.  

One Loudoun, planned as a town-center-style development on 358 acres at Route 7 and Loudoun County Parkway, will be up for a public auction on Sept. 28 at the county courthouse, according to trustees’ sale notice.

 And earlier today there was a report that Washington DC area has the strongest employment market in the country.  I can only imagine how bad it must be in other areas of the country.

Loudoun County Real Estate Inventory at 1228

Loudoun County inventory is at 1228 homes for sale. In March it was around 800. There was a bunch of pent up supply waiting to list due to the winter storms. The end of the tax credit did not increase supply nor did it decrease demand. Most everyone had either bought their house already or the tax credit wasn't a factor.

News and Statistics Affecting Loudoun County Real Estate

Here is a quick list of some of the most important news items and industry observations from the past month.  Each of these could have a profound affect on real estate and decisions you might make regarding your real estate situation. 

 Jeff Barnett wins the Democratic Nomination for US Congress for the 10th District of Virginia -  That would be our district.   His number one issue is real estate and he has a plan that is pro-consumers vs. pro-banks.  That is a welcome change from the current office holder who held a short sale meeting in Loudoun County last summer and proceeded to parade a bunch of bankers across the stage that gave lip service to the concerned real estate professionals regarding the short sale market.  Our concerns were realized and the banks continue to make billions while only helping a select few.  And it didn't help that Congressman Wolf paid little to no attention during the town hall style meeting.

Inventories are starting to grow - As of today there were almost 1200 active listings in Loudoun County.  This compares to only 815 at the beginning of March.  This will dampen any price increases for the foreseeable future.  Also, there still remains a shadow inventory that banks refuse to release.

The tax credit will end for most people on April 30th.  It was extended for an additional year for certain members of the military, foreign services and intelligence communities.

 Rebates are available for all real estate transactions in the United States (not just Loudoun County) through the VIP Cashback Program.

Short sales continue to present the best buying opportunities.  I have recently worked with 3 purchasers and all bought short sales.  Two were approved in under 45 days and at prices $15,000 - $20,000 below appraised values.

On a side note, my real estate company website, Complete Home,  is currently being redone with a new theme.  It is a work in progress but should be a great resource for buyers and sellers once it is completed. 

VIP Cashback Program in Loudoun County

 A new program for buyers and sellers of real estate was recently rolled out and one of the first members of the program lives here in Loudoun County.  The program is called VIP Cashback and it gives consumers an opportunity to receive money back in the form of a rebate check after they buy and/or sell a house.

Stephanie Wight and her husband Brian recently moved into their new Broadlands townhouse.  It was their first purchase and along with the government tax check for $8000, they received two additional checks for $2750 total.

This program is available to anyone in the United States and Canada that buys or sells a house through the VIP Cashback Program.

If you or anyone you know wants to take advantage of the program there are a number of ways to do so.  You can use this VIP Cashback link to sign up immediately.  Or you can send me your contact information and I will walk you through the program and all its benefits.  Or you can visit the VIP Cashback Fan Page on Facebook.  

Here is a video of the interview with Stephanie Wight when she received her rebate checks.

42% of Loudoun County Real Estate Sales are Distressed

 I just completed an analysis of the real estate transactions for 2009 for the entire 10th Congressional District. I was asked to do this by one of the candidates that will be running for this seat later in the year, Jeff Barnett. We had a lengthy conversation about the state of the real estate market in Loudoun County as well as other parts of the congressional district. It seems that Loudoun County is a good barometer for this distrct.

With 4767 transactions in 2009, Loudoun County represents about 27% of the market. And with 42% of the transactions being either short sales or foreclosures, this is very close to the 43% distressed sales rate for the district. In 2009, 4605 homes were sold by banks via real estate agents and 3017 homes were sold short by agents in the 10th Congressional District. 

 And there is really no reason to believe these numbers will get any better any time soon. Banks continue to control the flow of properties they are willing to put on the market. And the banks refuse to offer permanent loan modifications to homeowners in any significant amounts. 

In fact, they seem to be trying to prevent loan modifications by telling the Obama administration that the homeowners are not sending in all the information. The truth is probably the banks are telling the homeowners to fax in the documents and then they banks just delete them from the queues. I have had this happen to me many many times and every bank does it.  And it seems no one from the administration is checking to see if what the banks is saying is true.  But then again why would they since Obama was one of the biggest recipients of campaign funding from these very banks.  But I digress.

Here is a link to a breakdown of all the zip codes within the 10th Congressional District.

Download Real Estate Sales Analysis - 10th District

Preview of Loudoun County Year End Real Estate Statistics

 With the new year only a couple of days away, I wanted to take a preliminary look at how the Loudoun County Real Estate market of 2009 compares to the market of 2008.  There have been many developments over the past year that have influenced the real estate market.  Here are a couple that I feel have made a huge difference to our market:

Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers - This waste of taxpayer money has created a complete imbalance in the low end inventory levels.  The problem with the market in Loudoun is not demand, it is inventory.  Adding more buyers to the market segment that has had multiple offers for over a year is a total failure.  When you see the inventory levels you will see what I mean.

Bank Indifference - There is currently a huge shadow inventory level in Loudoun County due to the fact that banks refuse to put foreclosed homes on the market in a timely fashion.  This will keep price levels down as home buyers realize that there is still a bunch of vacant homes that need to be sold over the coming months.  This strategy by banks will increase the length of the recovery by 2 or 3 years.

Interest Rates - Rates have remained at historically low levels as the Federal Reserve has continued to be a huge buyer of mortgage backed securities.  This program is set to expire in March of 2010 and then normal market forces will take over and presumably move rates higher.  In the meantime, the rates have kept demand levels higher as the cost to borrow money remains low.

Here is a good breakdown of the government intervention into the housing market.

Recession - Bad news for the country means good news for Washington.  And Loudoun County is no exception as it has reaped the benefits of the democratic efforts to save the economy by increasing the size of government.  Unemployment levels are half as much as other areas of the country and as the government continues to expand, the jobs will be here.   And people will move here to find employment.   

So these four factors continue to push inventories down.  As of today the number of homes for sale in Loudoun County is only 770.  On Jan 8th of 2009, inventory in Loudoun was at 1471.  This is a decrease of almost 50% on top of the previous year decrease of 38%  

But prices for the full year are almost unchanged.  The average sales price of a home this year was $362,349 vs. $367,557.  This is only a 1.4% change.  And the number of homes sold has gone down 13% from 2008.  This year 4283 homes have been sold with 3 days left in the year.  Last year 4927 homes were sold.  And even more striking is the drop off in home sales over the last 4 months of the year.  Since September 1st, only 802 homes have gone to closing.  Last year 1327 homes went to closing in the final four months.   That is a drop off of 40%.  

In my next post, I will take a closer look behind the numbers and try to explain why the market is acting like it is and give you and idea of what to expect the beginning of next year.  Also, I will have charts and graphs of year end numbers once the year is over.   

Winery Thursday in Loudoun County - Breaux Vineyards

Another unbelievably nice day on Thursday forced us back out to another Loudoun County vineyard - Breaux Vineyards in Purcellville.  With over 100 planted acres on a 404 acre estate, it is definitely one of the biggest vineyards in the area and the views are awesome.  It reminded us a little of the views from the vineyards in Sonoma.

When we got to the vineyard, Alyssa was our host and she served up 14 different wines for our $10 tasting.  Included on the list was a 2002 Merlot that was awesome.  They also make a wine from the Italian Nebbiolo grape.  One of the great things about going to the vineyards and wineries in this area is the diversity of wines being made.  Last week it was a Chambourcin from Fabbioli.

The views were spectacular, the wines were excellent and the weather was incredible.  Visiting the wineries in Loudoun County is a great way to spend an afternoon.  If you would like to join us on our Thursday afternoon excursions, join our Facebook Group or drop me an email.  We also welcome suggestions for a winery to visit in the coming weeks.

Quick Statistics for Loudoun County Real Estate

Here are some statistics about the Loudoun County real estate market that I follow on a regular basis as well as some interesting trends that tell a lot about the current market conditions.  

Current Inventory - 922  

At the beginning of August this number went below 1000 for the first time in 3 years and it has continued to go down.  At the start of the year, this number was 1256.

Homes sold since Jan 1 - 3125

This is the lowest number since 2000.  Last year there were 3306 sold in the first 8 months.  2007 there were 3312.  Contrary to what you read in the papers, home sales are not going up, they are just not going down very much.  FYI, in 2005 5291 homes were sold between Jan and Aug.

Pending Home Sales - 1241

This is the number of homes under contract but have not yet settled.  That means there is a backlog of over 3 months of homes waiting to close.  This number has been growing due to the incredible length of time it takes a bank to approve short sales.  775 of the 1241 are short sales. 

Percent of Sales that are Distressed - 38.2%

Of the homes that have sold in Loudoun County this year, 1117 have been classified as foreclosures or short sales.  That number has stayed relatively constant throughout this year but the mix has shifted to more short sales as the year has progressed.