The Balanced Market Continues - Loudoun County Market Update

A Balanced Market Continues

Real Estate activity continues to remain balanced between buyers and sellers in most parts of Loudoun County.  Despite some inclement weather, sales remained steady and listings were tame.  This led to inventory levels staying at around 2050 for the entire county.  Active listings have been hovering at this level for the past 9 weeks.   Look for these levels to start to increase as the spring market for sellers kicks into high gear in the next 8 weeks.  Hopefully interest rates will remain low and buyer activity will keep pace.

20164 Section of Sterling is Lagging the rest of County

While most zip codes of Loudoun County saw little if any build up of inventory, the 20164 section of Sterling saw listings outpace sales by 52%.  This was by far the worst performing area of Loudoun County in the month of February.  A closer looked showed that the median list price for homes that have gone under contract this year in 20164 has been $369,900 while the median list price for the 305 actives is $399,900 as of March 1.  This means that the average home is currently overprice by $30,000. 

Resale Activity near 2002 Levels

Through the first two months of 2007, the sales activity has been the same as the first two months of 2002 when looking at units sold.  In January and February of 2002 sales were 434 and 397 respectively.  This year the numbers are 462 and 399.  In March of 2002 we had sales of 529 and we should expect to see numbers at these levels this year given the current trends and seasonality.

Prices Remain Firm

Median list prices for Loudoun County have been at or near the $425,000 level since September of last year and this month was no exception.  As of today the median list price for homes that went under contract was $429,900.  Although the final sales price is going to be lower than the list price in almost every case, the list prices give you an indication of what level you need to be at to get a buyer to write a contract.

Comments

[Stephanie]

It's easy to say that the 20164 properties listed for sale are overpriced by $30,000. But what your article doesn't mention is that even listing at $399,000 the average short-term homeower is LOSING an average of $40,000 when compared to the list prices of the area from just a year or two ago. So are you proposing that they now lose $70,000?

[Tony Arko]

Stephanie, thanks for the comment. The prices for all homes in Loudoun County have dropped in price since the peak of the market in June of 2005, not just the homes in the 20164 zip code. In some places the drop in value has exceeded 15%. If in fact someone was looking to sell the home after only owning it a short period than their timing couldn't be worse. But most people buy homes to live in and do not view them as short-term investments. Also, the only way a homeowner loses is if they actually sell the property. If they hold onto it than they don't lose anything. I propose they hold onto the property and not sell unless they absolutely have to.