If the past is any indication of the future of real estate prices in Loudoun County, then we are in for another 5 years of little if any price appreciation in Loudoun County. According to annual statistics on the Dulles Area Association of Realtors website, the last market slowdown/correction occurred in 1990 when the average sales price dropped from $181,800 in 1989 to $170,100 the next year. The market didn't get back to that high water mark until 1994.
The bull market that proceeded the current market slowdown started in 1997 when the average price of a home in Loudoun County was $202,166. Eight years later the average price had increase to $546,897. This awesome market was bound to slow down if not retreat. Through the first six months of 2007 the average price of a home sold in Loudoun County has dropped to $502,005. This is the first drop in the average price since 1996.
With the bull market over and a price correction already in place, past market cycles indicate we are probably going to see a consolidation period. A consolidation period or base building period is characterized by a long period of time with little if any price movement.
A comparison can be made to the stock market of 7 years ago when a huge correction began in 2000, lasted for about 18 months and then a base building period of 4 years lasted until 2006 and led to the current bull market.
So look for the next real estate bull market in Loudoun County to start around March or April of 2011.
