Loudoun County Real Estate Statistics and News

Will Loudoun County Home Prices Continue to Rise?

So far in 2009, the median sales price of a home sold in Loudoun County has continued to steadily rise.  Below is a chart illustrating this price appreciation.

Since hitting a low in January, the median sales price has continued to rise.

This rise in price is most likely a function of the moratorium on foreclosures that began at the end of 2008 combined with less than normal listing activity during the spring season. 

The real question is will these prices continue to rise, hold steady at these levels or drop back down.

Recent developments suggest that the median sales prices will most likely move back down in the short term and languish for the foreseeable future.  The reasons for this are threefold:

1.  Interest Rate Runup - Interest rates have recently run up to the 5.5% level after having held below 5% for most of the year.  This will cause some buyers to hold off making a purchase and might cause some homeowners who wanted to refinance to consider selling instead.

2.  Moratorium on Foreclosures Lifted - The six month moratorium has been lifted on foreclosures so the shadow inventory of abandoned homes is set to start hitting the market very soon.  We are already seeing an increase in those listings in Loudoun.

3.  Talk of $15,000 tax credit - Any buyer on the fence about buying is more than likely going to wait and see if they will be getting a $15,000 tax credit when they purchase.  

Right now, nothing is positive for the real estate market from an economic standpoint.  And with President Obama focused on health care reform and green technology, states continue to face bankruptcy caused by the real estate crisis and the problems haven't been addressed.  Just kicked down the road.

Is a Scandal Coming to Loudoun County?

Although it has not been verified yet, the Loudoun Independent wrote the following article yesterday: 

Report Alleges FBI Investigation into County Land Purchases

The investigation has something to do with a real estate purchase, or should I say, a failed purchase.

It seems that Northern Virginia scandals might not be limited to the Prince William County Government:

PWC Planning Office Sexual Harassment Scandal

Prince William County Bid Rigging Scandal

With massive budgets and more power than they deserve, it is not surprising that these types of scandals occur.  It is just sad at the complete lack of morals or ethics of our leaders in government.

$1Million Listings Just Aren't Selling in Loudoun County

If you have a house listed in Loudoun County over $1Million than you have some serious obstacles to overcome.  The chart below breaks down the absorption levels by price for Loudoun County Real Estate.

It is also interesting to note the low levels of inventory all the way up to $600,000.  This is because of the availability of loans up to $625,000 that are FHA insurable.  

Jumbo loans are very expensive and continue to be a market that has few participants.  

This will continue into the foreseeable future.  Bad for the sellers but good for buyers if you can afford it.  A house that could have sold for $1Million in 2006 can be bought for $650,000 today.

Loudoun County Short Sales and Foreclosures Breakdown

On Saturday I gave a presentation on the state of the real estate market at the Dulles Home Fair.  I am going to publish those charts here and include commentary on the ones that are the most interesting.  The first charts are the complete sales, pending sales and active listings in Loudoun County since May 1st broken down by type of listing - short sale, foreclosure or organic.

The first chart shows the listings that have come on the market since 5/1 and the breakdown by type.  The slowdown in foreclosure activity is obvious with only 13% of the listings.  This is signficantly less than the 40% we were seeing before the foreclosure moratorium.

The pending sales data shows that current contract activity has been moving from the foreclosure market to the short sale market.  This is also a function of the moratorium on short sales.  54% of all contracts are written on distressed properties.

And the final chart are the settled transactions since 5/1.  This shows two important trends.  First, that 23% of the solds are short sales.  Just 9 months ago this number was closer to 5%.  

The moratorium on foreclosures allowed the banks to assign more resources to their short sale departments, thereby allowing a better success rate for those sellers that had to go the short sale route.  

The second trend is the difference in the total amount of sales versus the number of contracts being written.  There are 40% less homes that actual settle versus contract written.  This is a much bigger number than we have seen the last 10+ years.  The length of time to settlement has been significantly increased by the short sale transactions and it is showing up in pending settlement backlogs.  

As of today 1321 homes are under contract but have yet to settle.  To give you some perspective, there are only 1113 homes for sale in all of Loudoun County.

1st Annual Dulles Home Fair Open to the Public

The 1st Annual Dulles Home Fair will take place on June 13th at the Embassy Suites on Waxpool Road.  The Dulles Area Association of Realtors holds their Expo the day before and this year a second day was added just for the benefit of the public.  I encourage anyone interested in real estate topics come to the fair. 

I have been fortunate enough to be selected to present twice on Saturday.  The first presentation is on short sales, both for buyers and sellers.  I will explain in detail the short sale process including setting expectations for all parties involved, how to work with banks, how to document the process correctly, and what not to do so that you don't end up in foreclosure.  I will also explain the process from the buyers perspective including how to get the best deals and why short sales are great opportunities.

I have also been asked to present on the state of the real estate market in Loudoun County.  This will be a graph filled presentations with lots of good charts and graphics that will not be your typical boring power point presentation.  

Here is a link to the schedule for the Consumer Day on Saturday the 13th.

It is free and it should be very informative.