Loudoun County Real Estate Statistics and News

Loudoun County Home Sales and Prices - 2008 Year to Date

I have updated a previous chart to include the most recently months of home sales and average home prices in Loudoun County.   This is for resale properties that went under contract during the calendar month and the final closing prices or very close estimates of those prices for the most recent months.

 

As you can see the trends for units sold have been down since the peak in April and prices have moved down since the very beginning of the year. 

Below is a two year chart of sales prices which show the steady downtrend started in July of 2007

 

Sales Up, Prices Down in Loudoun County Real Estate Market

Sales continue to be strong in Loudoun County through the just completed third quarter. 1484 homes went under contract during the three months ended September 30th. This is a huge 67% increase over the same time period last year.

However, prices continue to take a beating with the average sales price down $133,000 to $354,000 during the quarter.

The two charts below show the contrast that these two statistics represent here in Loudoun County.

Loudoun County Inventory Chart - YTD

I have been talking about how the inventory levels in Loudoun County have been decreasing the past four months and here is a chart that illustrates what I have been saying. The change to the inventory is calculated by subtracting the sold, withdrawn and expired listings from the total new listings.

Add this post to Google Reader: 

Loudoun County Sales Prices Since Jan 2007

Here is another good chart that shows the steady decline of prices over the last 13 months which just so happens to coincide with the mortgage crisis that happened last summer.  Definitely not a coincidence.

Add this post to Google Reader: 

Loudoun County Real Estate Statistics - August 2008

Here is a good description of the current market for real estate in Loudoun County and a graph that illustrates the trends.

Units sold is has held steady for the last 5 months....average prices dropped in July and now hover around $350,000.

Add this post to Google Reader: 

Inventory Levels Continue to Drop in Loudoun County

The number of resale homes for sale in Loudoun County has just recently dipped below the 2000 level for the first time in over 2 years.  The inventory number now stands at 1978 for the entire county.  Here are the supply numbers for the towns in Eastern Loudoun:

Sterling - 505

Leesburg - 588

Ashburn - 348

South Riding - 109

Add this post to Google Reader: 

Loudoun County Has Highest Income in the Country

  According to information on the 2007 Census, Loudoun County ranks as the highest median income county in the United States.   The median income per household for Loudoun was $107,207. 

The county narrowly beat out Fairfax County to the east.  The median income for Fairfax was $105,241.  For the past several years, Loudoun and Fairfax have switched off holding the number one spot for this statistical category. 

Here is a full story on the statistics and rankings for several other counties in the metropolitan DC area.

Add this post to Google Reader: 

Loudoun County Real Estate Statistics Resource

The new Dulles Area Association of Realtors has a Market Statistics page that you should bookmark if you want to find out what is happening in Real Estate in Loudoun County.

Two good statistics they show are Average Sales Price and Median Sales Price.  Check it out when you get a chance.

2nd Quarter Real Estate Statistics for Loudoun County

The second quarter of 2008 is over and it was a very interesting quarter.  Several trends emerged that were unexpected and others that were expected have not materialized.  What we are seeing is several trends converging and opportunities will present themselves in the next several months.

FORECLOSURES

The doom and gloom stories about how foreclosures were going to inundate the market this year have not happened.  In some areas there have been more foreclosures than other areas but the trend was already established in the last half of 2007 .  The total number of foreclosures has not increased at all in the last three months.  What has increased is the number of buyers of foreclosures and the percentage of foreclosure sales to the total sales.  Prices have come down enough to get value buyers off the fence and make purchases.

PERFECT STORM

By my calculations and observations, a perfect storm is brewing for home buyers.  The inventory levels have continued to go down in the county throughout the quarter.  The net loss of 327 listings to the active inventory compares to a net gain last year of 524.  With inventory levels now at 2250 or so, this is a huge turnaround for Loudoun County.

The second part of the storm is the decrease in prices.  The average list price of a house sold in the second quarter of 2008 was $390,475.  This is a decrease of 22% from the average list price of houses sold in the second quarter of 2007.  And compared to the first quarter of 2008 prices were down 4% but sales were up 60%. 

This scenario of decreasing inventory and decreasing prices will only last so long.  Eventually prices will go up.  I predict that people will look back at the second half of 2008 and say it was one of the best times to buy real estate in Loudoun County.

Barring anything catastrophic happening to our county (and no, high gas prices is not catastrophic), the indicators point to this time as a market bottom in Loudoun County real estate.

Quick Look at Loudoun County Inventory

As of this morning, inventory levels in Loudoun County are below the 2400 level.  This continues a trend of decreases in total inventory during a time when we usually seen inventory levels rise. 

For the month of June net inventory levels are down 137 through Monday.  Average prices are still below $400,000 level.